Tackling the Migration and Refugee Crisis at EU Borders : Patterns of Policy Learning and Change

Abstract

The migration and refugee crisis of 2015–2016 had a major impact on different dimensions of European politics and called into question the process of European integration. Such a disruptive crisis triggered a variety of policy responses, some of which appear to imply fundamental changes in underlying policy paradigms. To make sense of these non-incremental changes, the present research provides an insight into EU crisis decision-making, analysing its underlying mechanisms and dynamics through the lenses of the contingent learning approach. Indeed, the emergence of such changes is interpreted as going through a surprise-triggered understanding of cue–outcome associations in the context of the crisis and consequent behavioural adaptation, which took place without substantial alteration of beliefs systems. To test this hypothesis the present research employed process tracing methods, drawing on semi- structured interviews and qualitative analysis of official documents to reconstruct a possible causal sequence of crisis decision-making. The present analysis provided substantial evidence for the validity of such an interpretation, which can effectively complement the insights provided by integration theories and contribute to the understanding of the impact of crises on the Union.