Master thesis : Modeling Risk and Uncertainties with the Aim of Allowing a Company to Make the Best Choices by Using Palisade DecisionTools Suite

Abstract

Decision-making is part of everyday life. In theory, making a decision consists in assessing all the choices, their outcomes, and sometimes their probability of occurrence and then making the best choice according to the decision maker's preferences. For instance, should employees commute by bus or by car? If they take the bus, they will depend on the location of the bus stop and bus schedule and may arrive late at work if the bus is delayed. However, this option is more environmentally friendly. On the other side, the car offers more flexibility but is less environmentally friendly. According to whether they are concerned with the environment or flexibility, they will prefer one option to the other. However, in reality, decision-making is more complex. Indeed, making choices in the real world implies considering uncertainties during the decision process. In addition, more than one person is involved in the decision-making process which makes the final decision more complicated to make as each person has different preferences. Companies such as Safran Aero Boosters (SAB), an engineering company specialising in aerospace parts such as boosters, are affected by the latter type of decision-making process.

This thesis identifies and models the decision-making problem within research and development in the (new) technologies department of the SAB company. To model this problem, a decision support tool, called Crystal Ball Decision Tool is proposed. Developed in Microsoft Excel and with the Palisade DecisionSuite Tools add-ins, Crystal Ball Decision Tool makes use of Monte Carlo simulation to handle uncertainties and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making methods to satisfy the different person's preferences within the decision-making process. This tool can support SAB employees in their decision-making by analysing technologies and comparing several technologies/projects, among which prioritisation must be made. In addition, Crystal Ball Decision Too allows centralising the decision-making process in one single tool.

The decision support tool's abilities to analyse and compare technologies are then tested on three real SAB projects. Although improvements can be made to this very first version of the tool within the SAB company, the results are encouraging and show that the Crystal Ball Decision Tool fulfils its duty to assist in decision-making.