Travail de fin d'études et stage[BR]- Travail de fin d'études : Contribution to the definition of long-term energy transition scenarios in Bolivia[BR]- Stage d'insertion professionnelle : Universidad Mayor de San Simón (Bolivie, Cochabamba)

Abstract

In the context of worldwide efforts to fight climate change, this master thesis addresses the need for developing countries to enhance their energy modelling capabilities for a comprehensive understanding of potential future scenarios. By using the PyPSA-Earth Modeling framework, this study focuses on Bolivia's energy transition. The goal is to bridge a research gap in energy modelling by using an open-source model that facilitates long-term, high-resolution analyses. The thesis has two main parts. At first, it adjusts the model to Bolivia's context, with a special emphasis on hydropower, a very important energy source in the country's energy landscape. After this first step, scenarios considering factors like decommissioning of power plants, fluctuations in gas prices, and CO2 emissions limitations are created. The research underscores the influence of current governmental policies on Bolivia's energy composition, which heavily relies on gas. Moreover, it forecasts the potential outcomes of future CO2 restrictions, revealing opportunities in biomass and solar energy. The findings highlight that the enforcement of CO2 limitations might lead to elevated electricity production costs, necessitating the exploration of energy storage solutions to manage the variability of sources. While these outcomes yield favorable effects on the climate, they simultaneously have the potential to result in unfavorable impacts on electricity prices. Thus, these solutions might not be financially viable without government policies that support the subsidization of renewable energy. Furthermore, the study addresses the impact of global warming on the energy sector through a scenario analysis involving changing inflow patterns linked to decreasing global precipitation trends. This scenario underscores the need for strategic management of hydropower resources, advocating the use of Run-of-River (ROR) plants during rainy seasons and reservoir types during dry seasons. This approach optimizes energy production while mitigating the effects of reduced inflows.