Feedback

Faculté des Sciences
Faculté des Sciences
MASTER THESIS
VIEW 73 | DOWNLOAD 3

Predicting the impacts of climate change on threatened endemic spermatophyte distributions in the Canary Islands

Download
Coursac, Marine ULiège
Promotor(s) : Vanderpoorten, Alain ULiège ; Patiño, Jairo
Date of defense : 24-Jan-2022 • Permalink : http://hdl.handle.net/2268.2/13894
Details
Title : Predicting the impacts of climate change on threatened endemic spermatophyte distributions in the Canary Islands
Author : Coursac, Marine ULiège
Date of defense  : 24-Jan-2022
Advisor(s) : Vanderpoorten, Alain ULiège
Patiño, Jairo 
Committee's member(s) : Magain, Nicolas ULiège
Monty, Arnaud ULiège
Hambuckers, Alain ULiège
Language : English
Number of pages : 64
Discipline(s) : Life sciences > Environmental sciences & ecology
Institution(s) : Université de Liège, Liège, Belgique
Degree: Master en biologie des organismes et écologie, à finalité approfondie
Faculty: Master thesis of the Faculté des Sciences

Abstract

[en] Climate change is unequivocal and impacts biodiversity on a global scale. Climatic predictions announced substantial variations in environmental conditions in the near future, with unpredictable effects on the survival of species. In this context, biodiversity hotspots are key regions to preserve, especially oceanic islands that exhibit high endemism levels combined with high extinction rates. In the Canary Islands, the endemic vascular flora is under considerable threat, and its fate under predicted climatic conditions remains unknown.
In this master’s thesis, we investigated the impact of climate change on 69 threatened spermatophytes species distributions endemic to the Canary Islands and assessed the effectiveness of the Canarian protected area network.
We used ensemble of small models to (i) predict the suitable range of such species under three future climatic scenarios, from the most optimistic (SSP1-2.6) to the worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5) and a midway between (SSP3-7.0), and (ii) assess the overlap between predicted suitable ranges with the currently protected area circumscription.
The models projected an average loss of 78 %, 85 % and 82 % of the suitable area and an average elevation shift upward of 103 meters, 230 meters and 223 meters for all species under SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Current protected areas were found to cover 61.5 % of the present suitable range and 61.5 %, 63.8 % and 62.5 % of the predicted suitable ranges under SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, respectively.
As expected for insular biodiversity, the loss of most endemic species is likely to occur in the coming decades. For that reason, effective conservation measures and drastic reductions of our carbon emissions are essential.


File(s)

Document(s)

File
Access MEMOIRE.pdf
Description:
Size: 3.64 MB
Format: Adobe PDF
File
Access Erratum_MEMOIRE.pdf
Description: -
Size: 23.68 MB
Format: Adobe PDF

Author

  • Coursac, Marine ULiège Université de Liège > Master biol. orga. & écol., fin.

Promotor(s)

Committee's member(s)

  • Magain, Nicolas ULiège Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de Biologie, Ecologie et Evolution > Biologie de l'évolution et gestion de la biodiversité
    ORBi View his publications on ORBi
  • Monty, Arnaud ULiège Université de Liège - ULiège > Département GxABT > Biodiversité et Paysage
    ORBi View his publications on ORBi
  • Hambuckers, Alain ULiège Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de Biologie, Ecologie et Evolution > Biologie du comportement - Ethologie et psychologie animale
    ORBi View his publications on ORBi
  • Total number of views 73
  • Total number of downloads 3










All documents available on MatheO are protected by copyright and subject to the usual rules for fair use.
The University of Liège does not guarantee the scientific quality of these students' works or the accuracy of all the information they contain.