Impact of population changes on the future CO2 emissions

Abstract

This thesis aims to analyze the impact of population changes on future CO2 emissions. The influence of CO2 emissions on climate changes is now proven, and economists have been trying to make socio-economic projections for decades in order to estimate future carbon emissions. Indeed, those estimations are crucial to allow climate searchers to build long-term climate models. This work starts with an important literature review of all the previous studies on the relationship between population changes and anthropogenic emissions. A synthesis of all the findings of those studies is realized and then some analysis and projections are made in order to evaluate the influence of demography on future global carbon emissions. The results show that for the goal to reach of a carbon neutral economy in 2050, a lower fertility would have almost no impact. However, for the objective to limit global warming to 2° with a 50% probability compared to the pre-industrial era, a lower fertility rate could have a significant impact. Indeed, a decreased fertility would represent 24.5% of the efforts needed to achieve this objective in 2100. Furthermore, 62.7% of this emissions diminution would be due to the developing countries fertility decrease. Finally, fertility policies could thus be an efficient strategy to tackle climate changes in the long-term but other traditional climate policies should also be implemented in the short-term. The implementation of those fertility policies is also discussed with their consequences and their ethical issues that come with them.