HEC-Ecole de gestion de l'Université de Liège
HEC-Ecole de gestion de l'Université de Liège

Analysis of Intra Industry Trade Determinants and Impact to Total Trade

Gao, Liang ULiège
Promotor(s) : Muller, Aline ULiège
Date of defense : 6-Sep-2016/12-Sep-2016 • Permalink :
Title : Analysis of Intra Industry Trade Determinants and Impact to Total Trade
Author : Gao, Liang ULiège
Date of defense  : 6-Sep-2016/12-Sep-2016
Advisor(s) : Muller, Aline ULiège
Committee's member(s) : Poncelet, Julien ULiège
Sutera Sardo, Carine 
Language : English
Discipline(s) : Business & economic sciences > Finance
Target public : Student
Institution(s) : Université de Liège, Liège, Belgique
Degree: Master en sciences de gestion, à finalité spécialisée en Banking and Asset Management
Faculty: Master thesis of the HEC-Ecole de gestion de l'Université de Liège


[en] The objective of this paper is to analyze the determinants of intra industry trade and its impact to total trade of China. Over the last decade, China's foreign trade has won the best and fastest growth period in history, that people wonder what made China foreign trade so fast? The GDP, production factor endowment, production scales and or China's RMB exchange rate which is judged as an artificially undervalued currency?
Since the intra industry trade increasingly took important portion in the international trade and became a measure of industrialization level. This paper applied the conception of Paul Krugman (1980) of new trade theory explaining that the main benefits of Intra industry trade come from production and exports of differentiated goods between Countries and the increasing returns in economies of scales (caused by production scales)under the imperfect competition in real economies.
On one side, the analysis of Gluble Lloyd Index Global ratio between China and sample Countries explained that : the Global IIT as well as the IIT in Manufactured goods has sustainably increased over the last 15 years, while GL ratios in primary products has declined. On another side, the IIT trade balance explained that China's trade pattern has been changed, that, in some section such as SITC 2 Crude materials, inedible, except fuels and SITC4 .Animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes, the imports values have significantly covered the exports which explained the demand of materials and the growth in manufacture industries in China.
Determinants of IIT analyzed includes :GL index, Foreign direct investment, Real gross domestic product and trade partners, Real GDP per capita, Market size inequality, Development inequality, Distance and Foreign exchange rate volatility.
The paper applied the non-linear logistic Balassa (1986) probability function to estimate the impact of determinants on intra industry trade.
For the links between Intra industry trade and total trade, Granger Causality is engaged to predict the causal relationship between them.



Access Thesis _Analysis of Intra industry trade, determinants and impact to total trade, case of China _GAO LIANG s106245.pdf
Description: Thesis_ Analysis of Intra Industry Trade, Determinants and Impact to Total Trade_ Case of China
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Access Asean.xls
Description: IIT ASEAN
Size: 493.5 kB
Format: Microsoft Excel
Access EUROPE 28 Detailled.xls
Description: IIT EU 28 Detailled
Size: 1.16 MB
Format: Microsoft Excel
Description: IIT Total Trade Group
Size: 477.01 kB
Format: Microsoft Excel XML
Access New Model.xlsx
Description: Determinants IIT
Size: 11.55 MB
Format: Microsoft Excel XML
Access Variables.xlsx
Description: Determinants IIT Detailled
Size: 302.95 kB
Format: Microsoft Excel XML


  • Gao, Liang ULiège Université de Liège > Master sc. gest., fin. spéc. banking & asset (ex 2e master)


Committee's member(s)

  • Poncelet, Julien ULiège Université de Liège - ULg > HEC-Ecole de gestion de l'ULg : UER > UER Finance et Droit
    ORBi View his publications on ORBi
  • Sutera Sardo, Carine
  • Total number of views 25
  • Total number of downloads 9

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