An analysis of the impact of connection time on air passenger demand

Abstract

Although air itinerary demand has been subjected to intensive research for years, few studies specifically analyse the impact on passenger demand of connection time. It is traditionally assumed that passengers prefer to minimise the elapsed time of their trips and hence, connection time. However, it has since been demonstrated that passengers actually avoid short connections. This paper therefore aims at challenging the assumption that passengers want to minimise connection times. A linear regression model describing air itinerary demand is developed to this end. The issue is then analysed in greater depth by adding new dimensions to the discussion. More particularly, the combined impacts on demand of connection time and trip purpose, departure time of day, past flight on-time performance and flight duration are studied. Results suggest that aversion to risk of misconnection and discomfort associated with the necessity to rush imply a lower demand for short connection times. Demand appears to be nonlinear, increasing for additional minutes of connection time above the minimum connection time and decreasing afterwards. Results also indicate that the impact of connection time on demand varies depending on the analysed trip and passenger characteristics. This paper is divided into six parts. It begins with an introduction of the context of the study and the definition of several research questions. An overview of the scientific literature on air itinerary demand is then provided with a focus on connection time analysis. After that, the analytical framework is presented and the methodology followed to build the final linear regression model is detailed. This model is then used to analyse connection time. Results are discussed and interpreted in the fifth chapter and the final chapter, besides summarising key findings and contributions, provides some recommendations based on these findings.