Modeling migration dynamics within the agent-based Harris-Todaro framework

Abstract

This master thesis explores after some theoretical development inspired from different authors, the dynamics of migration within urbanization processes using the agent-based Harris-Todaro model. As the world urbanizes at a rapid pace, it is important to develop tools that allow us to understand the changing world around us. Urbanization is characterized by an increasing proportion of populations residing in urban areas, driven by productivity differences between the urban and rural sectors. This thesis investigates how migration dynamics can be modeled within the Harris-Todaro framework, situating the research in the context of current global urban transitions. It also revisits classic texts by Marx and Smith to highlight theoretical tensions between the two authors. A literature review covers existing migration models, multi-agent systems, and dynamics within migration models. The thesis details the implementation of the model and the results obtained. By simulating various migration parameters, this study demonstrates the model’s flexibility and ability to capture complex migration dynamics suitable for diverse socio-economic contexts. The two major contributions of this thesis within the agent-based Harris-Todaro model are the addition of the subjective judgment of agents and the historicity of the unemployed person's journey. The significant contribution of this work is that it also presents in a very detailed form the influence of the parameters and initial conditions of the model on its own dynamics. The findings lay the groundwork for future research, advocating for the integration of empirical data to further refine the model and extend its usefulness in understanding and planning urban development.