Le HVO 100 : Certification, réglementation et perspectives d'acceptation sur le marché luxembourgeois

Abstract

The consequences of the climate crisis are now affecting all continents. Policies are being implemented to better address this issue. Innovative ideas are being developed to reduce dependency on fossil energy and preserve future generations. It is within this decarbonization process that TotalEnergies launched an advanced biofuel called HVO 100. This study analyzes the acceptance prospects of this biofuel on the Luxembourgish market, the certification process, as well as the calculation methodology to achieve a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 91.7% compared to conventional diesel. The HVO 100 is a biofuel certified and monitored by the ISCC organization. An annual audit is conducted to ensure that the biofuel complies with the sustainability criteria defined in the RED II directive for advanced biofuels. Moreover, the current study shows that, this biofuel meets the EN 590 and EN 15940 standards. To study its acceptance on the Luxembourgish market, a Google Form survey was done to collect opinions about this biofuel within the University. Out of the 217 responses gathered, it was found that 65% of respondents were not familiar with this biofuel and had never hear about it. The survey also revealed that infrastructure development, lack of information, and price are major barriers to its adoption in Luxembourg. As part of this study, neural networks, specifically an LSTM model, were used to predict the price of diesel. The data analysed covers the period from January 2009 to January 2025, the data contain daily price of diesel during that period. The model has remarkable performance, with an accuracy of 0.9 and an error of 0.02. The prediction curve shows that the price of diesel could reach €1.30 by 2045, this prediction does not consider political factor, natural crisis or war. Additionally, the Monte Carlo simulation method was employed to estimate the evolution of the HVO 100 price based on its current price of €1.98 in Luxembourg. Three scenarios were considered: optimistic, median, and pessimistic. The results indicate that after 20 years, in the optimistic scenario, the price would gradually increase to €3.20. In the median scenario, it would reach €4.20, while in the pessimistic scenario, the price would rise to €8.80.