Supply Chain Evolution: Assessing the Marocco-Nigeria gas pipeline's impact

Abstract

This thesis explores one of the most ambitious energy infrastructure projects in Africa, the Morocco–Nigeria Gas Pipeline (MNGP), through the critical lens of supply chain evolution, energy geopolitics, and sustainability. In a world marked by energy insecurity, environmental urgency, and geopolitical fragmentation, the study questions whether transnational projects like the MNGP represent meaningful progress or simply repackage outdated paradigms under a modern veneer. Anchored in a rich historical analysis, the thesis traces how supply chain management (SCM) evolved from linear, efficiency-driven models to complex, politicized systems, especially in the energy sector. The research highlights how Africa, long marginalized in global value chains, is now central to Europe's urgent search for diversified energy sources post-Russia. The MNGP is framed not only as an infrastructural corridor but as a battleground of competing visions: sovereignty vs. dependency, regional integration vs. extractive continuity, and fossil-fuel resilience vs. low-carbon transition. Methodologically, the study employs a mixed approach: a Monte Carlo simulation models 18 parameters of the pipeline’s economic, environmental, and social impact, while a Triple Bottom Line analysis reveals a fragile balance—economically promising (7.48/10) but socially (5.02/10) and environmentally (5.72/10) weaker. Rather than offering binary judgments, this thesis invites readers to confront the uncomfortable trade-offs embedded in “solutions” like the MNGP. It challenges decision- makers to rethink infrastructure beyond GDP and gas volumes, toward metrics of resilience, justice, and sustainability. It opens a space for imagining future-ready supply chains that serve people and planet—not just pipelines.