Analyse de l'impact des conditions météorologiques sur la fréquentation des attractions touristiques au Grand-Duché de Luxembourg dans un contexte de changement climatique

Abstract

This thesis examines the impact of weather conditions on the attendance of tourist attractions in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg within the context of climate change. The analysis is based on daily attendance data and climatic variables covering the 2023 and 2024 tourist seasons. It explores the relationship between weather and visitation across three main types of activities: cultural visits, aquatic leisure, and hiking. To go beyond the simple observation of temperatures and to integrate the dimension of perceived weather, the study employs the Holiday Climate Index (HCI). This index, specifically designed to capture tourists’ perception of climate, classifies weather conditions into various categories ranging from “Dangerous” to “Ideal.” The adopted approach therefore combines direct temperature analysis with a biometeorological perspective, offering a more comprehensive understanding of the influence of climate on tourist behavior. The results highlight contrasting weather sensitivities depending on the type of activity. Optimal conditions, associated with the “Ideal” and “Excellent” categories of the HCI, generally correspond to a significant increase in visitation, while unfavorable conditions lead to notable declines. However, certain attractions stand out by maintaining high visitor numbers even during less favorable weather conditions, reflecting factors of attractiveness independent of climate or specific adaptations of their clientele. Ultimately, this work contributes to a better understanding of the interactions between climate and tourism in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg and underscores the need for resilient tourism planning. In a context where climate change is already reshaping tourist behaviors and flows, the availability of precise and contextualized quantitative analyses constitutes a key asset for guiding strategic decisions, ensuring the sector’s sustainability, and fully seizing emerging opportunities. Among these, the development of “coolcation” tourism could strengthen the attractiveness of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg in the years to come.