Research-Thesis: What are the effects of the green deal in farmers crops profitability, yields and management?

Abstract

This thesis examines the potential impacts of the EGD and the F2FS on agricultural productivity and farm profitability in Belgium. The analysis focuses on two key policy objectives: the reduction of chemical pesticide use and the reduction of consumption of animal-based products. The study combines quantitative analysis with qualitative interviews to capture both economic outcomes and farmers’ perspectives. The quantitative results suggest that the EGD’s pesticide reduction strategy is unlikely to have a significant negative impact on agricultural productivity in Wallonia. A substantial share of Walloon farmers already rely on low or zero pesticide use, and observed increases in cultivated area and pesticide expenditures between 2022 and 2024 did not lead to higher productivity per hectare. This indicates that further reductions in pesticide use may have limited effects on output, even for farms that still rely on chemical inputs. In contrast, policies aimed at reducing the consumption of animal-based products appear to have notable short-term negative effects on farm revenues and profitability across all Belgian regions. These effects are particularly pronounced for large and intensive farms, as well as for poultry and pig production systems. By comparison, sheep and goat farming and certain bovine systems show greater resilience. The analysis also highlights that the effectiveness of dietary shifts depends heavily on consumer behaviour, substitution patterns and international trade. Reduced domestic consumption does not necessarily lead to lower production if exports continue, nor does it automatically generate environmental benefits if consumers substitute animal products with more polluting alternatives. The qualitative interviews provide complementary insights into farmers’ adaptation strategies and perceptions. While the transition from conventional to organic farming was described as economically challenging in the short term, particularly during the conversion period, the experiences of several farmers demonstrate that such transitions are feasible when supported by diversification strategies and appropriate public support. The interviews also reveal that sustainability objectives can be pursued through hybrid production models, combining conventional and organic practices with a strong emphasis on product quality, without requiring full organic conversion. Overall, the findings suggest that while the environmental objectives of the EGD may be achievable in certain agricultural systems, policies based on uniform reductions in demand are economically sensitive and difficult to implement in practice. The results underline the importance of differentiated policy approaches that account for production intensity, farm structure and regional specificities, rather than relying on one-size-fits-all solutions.