Strategic analysis of the Belgian public pharmaceutical sector and future perspectives

Abstract

The topic of this paper is the application of environment analysis methods to the particular context of public Belgian pharmacy. Based on this analysis we build a set of market evolution scenarios and we complete it with resale pharmacy situations. This leads us to the two following research questions that we set out to answer with this paper: “Is the market overvalued?” “Can we still consider public pharmacy as a safe investment?” To answer these questions, we developed a set of stress tests based on scenarios and their occurrence probability. We test different kinds of pharmacies using this stress test and examine the results. With these analysis, we will find out that the application of those stress tests can lead to the bankruptcy of smaller and larger structures and that the market is not without risk. But we also note that depending on the size of the selected business, pharmacy resistance could be good. We also find that the large pharmacy has a secure future but may present an important bankruptcy risk during the repayment of the loan. This is the result of the buying market pressure and the high business price.