Remote Renewable Energy Hubs. Exporting green molecules to Belgium : a techno-economic and strategic perspective

Abstract

This thesis investigates the techno-economic feasibility of developing Remote Renewable Energy Hubs (RREHs) for the large-scale production and export of hydrogen and its derived molecules to Belgium. In light of global decarbonization targets, clean hydrogen is increasingly recognized as a key energy vector, particularly for hard-to-abate sectors such as maritime and aviation. However, significant economic and technical challenges persist, including high production costs, limited electrolyzer deployment, and financial uncertainties in emerging markets.

To address these issues, we adopt the perspective of a hydrogen project developer and construct a modular linear programming model to optimize infrastructure configurations for four energy carriers—hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and methane—across multiple geographies (Morocco, Algeria, Oman, Chile). The model incorporates location-specific estimates of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), as well as regional renewable potential and technological performance.

Our results show that project viability is highly sensitive to financing conditions, with WACC accounting for up to 27\% of cost differentials across regions. Among the studied countries, Morocco and Chile emerge as competitive suppliers, achieving levelized costs of 100-140\,€/MWh under favorable assumptions. Energy efficiency further distinguishes vectors, with hydrogen and ammonia outperforming carbon-based e-fuels. Nevertheless, all green alternatives remain more expensive than fossil counterparts, implying a continued need for policy instruments such as carbon pricing, Contracts for Difference (CfDs), and concessional finance.

The thesis concludes with strategic recommendations for Belgium to position itself as a leading importer of green molecules. This includes establishing long-term partnerships with RREHs, supporting enabling infrastructure, and deploying financial de-risking tools. Future research should explore revenue diversification, dynamic demand modeling, and environmental trade-offs to ensure a just and cost-effective hydrogen transition.